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Red28
99851.9
919121.1
88766.8
Blue8
99895.1
99977.0
99942.4
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions282101040506070288

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9191
Unranked
21.10.4
14.014.4
Auto5.6
Teleop14.3
End1.3
red by 14.1
9997
Unranked
7.00.0
4.64.6
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End0.6
Second
8876
Unranked
6.80.4
6.87.2
Auto2.5
Teleop3.3
End1.0
red by 1.8
9989
Unranked
5.10.0
2.32.3
Auto2.8
Teleop1.4
End0.8
Third
9985
Unranked
1.90.4
3.64.0
Auto0.2
Teleop1.1
End0.6
blue by 0.5
9994
Unranked
2.40.0
1.31.3
Auto2.7
Teleop-0.5
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
16%Melody oddsMissed18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed