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Red31
478823.6
99981.4
99956.4
Blue5
65242.1
99865.6
99895.1
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions51270406080100120140160315

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4788
Unranked
23.60.3
19.019.3
Auto9.9
Teleop12.7
End1.0
red by 18.0
9986
Unranked
5.60.8
2.82.0
Auto3.4
Teleop1.2
End1.1
Second
9995
Unranked
6.40.4
3.74.0
Auto1.6
Teleop3.9
End0.8
red by 1.3
9989
Unranked
5.10.8
3.22.3
Auto2.8
Teleop1.4
End0.8
Third
9998
Unranked
1.40.4
2.83.2
Auto2.3
Teleop-1.2
End0.3
blue by 0.7
6524
Unranked
2.10.8
6.45.6
Auto0.4
Teleop1.0
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsMissed18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
2%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed