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Red2
99716.5
99851.9
99708.5
Blue45
99956.4
478823.6
99895.1
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154306080100120140245

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9970
Unranked
8.51.4
3.11.8
Auto2.7
Teleop5.5
End0.4
blue by 15.0
4788
Unranked
23.61.0
21.022.0
Auto9.9
Teleop12.7
End1.0
Second
9971
Unranked
6.51.4
8.16.7
Auto1.4
Teleop3.6
End1.5
red by 0.2
9995
Unranked
6.41.6
4.46.0
Auto1.6
Teleop3.9
End0.8
Third
9985
Unranked
1.91.4
3.11.7
Auto0.2
Teleop1.1
End0.6
blue by 3.2
9989
Unranked
5.11.6
3.24.8
Auto2.8
Teleop1.4
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
8%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed4%Ensemble oddsMissed