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Red20
94339.1
92755.7
650910.2
Blue22
99724.7
99977.0
99708.5
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2111030405060702022

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6509
Unranked
10.20.2
8.07.7
Auto5.1
Teleop3.1
End1.9
red by 1.6
9970
Unranked
8.51.2
4.65.7
Auto2.7
Teleop5.5
End0.4
Second
9433
Unranked
9.10.2
8.18.0
Auto2.3
Teleop4.3
End2.5
red by 2.2
9997
Unranked
7.01.2
4.25.4
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End0.6
Third
9275
Unranked
5.70.3
6.25.9
Auto3.2
Teleop1.6
End0.9
red by 0.9
9972
Unranked
4.71.2
2.73.9
Auto1.8
Teleop1.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
9%Melody oddsMissed7%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
13%Ensemble oddsMissed4%Ensemble oddsMissed