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Red17
99992.3
99895.1
71137.8
Blue22
99919.3
99924.2
99931.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions212051015253035401722

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7113
Unranked
7.80.7
8.47.7
Auto3.1
Teleop3.6
End1.1
blue by 1.4
9991
Unranked
9.30.2
5.55.8
Auto2.5
Teleop5.7
End1.0
Second
9989
Unranked
5.10.7
4.53.8
Auto2.8
Teleop1.4
End0.8
red by 0.9
9992
Unranked
4.20.3
2.42.6
Auto1.7
Teleop1.9
End0.7
Third
9999
Unranked
2.30.7
4.74.0
Auto1.3
Teleop0.6
End0.4
red by 0.6
9993
Unranked
1.80.2
1.82.1
Auto-0.6
Teleop2.0
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
14%Melody oddsMissed3%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed