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Red45
775513.8
90917.4
69625.5
Blue35
80127.9
28404.9
325628.0
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5348204060801004535

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
696
#11
25.50.2
27.126.9
Auto6.9
Teleop17.8
End0.8
blue by 2.5
28.01.0
28.227.3
Auto11.2
Teleop14.8
End2.0
Second
7755
#18
13.80.2
13.413.1
Auto4.5
Teleop7.9
End1.4
red by 5.8
8012
#25
7.91.4
9.88.4
Auto2.7
Teleop5.0
End0.2
Third
9091
#19
7.40.2
7.06.8
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End1.2
red by 2.5
2840
#37
4.91.4
6.34.9
Auto1.7
Teleop1.7
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsMissed28%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed