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Red49
83395.7
427027.8
16227.3
Blue8
551610.0
92773.7
69027.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions412201030506070498

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.81.6
19.320.8
Auto8.5
Teleop14.7
End4.6
red by 17.8
5516
#15
10.01.6
6.04.4
Auto3.4
Teleop6.3
End0.4
Second
1622
#28
7.31.6
8.29.8
Auto2.3
Teleop3.2
End1.8
blue by 0.5
6902
#14
7.91.6
9.57.9
Auto3.0
Teleop2.6
End2.3
Third
8339
#22
5.71.6
7.38.9
Auto2.5
Teleop2.0
End1.3
red by 2.0
9277
#33
3.71.6
6.85.3
Auto1.7
Teleop1.7
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
11%Melody oddsMissed9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsEarned6%Ensemble oddsMissed