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Red72
151523.7
183613.8
665724.5
Blue48
744422.7
265823.5
50129.2
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions58504070807248

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.51.4
21.823.1
Auto11.6
Teleop10.8
End2.1
red by 1.0
2658
#20
23.50.1
19.719.8
Auto7.5
Teleop13.6
End2.4
Second
1515
#18
23.71.5
19.020.5
Auto10.1
Teleop12.2
End1.5
red by 1.1
7444
#16
22.70.1
19.920.0
Auto10.3
Teleop9.9
End2.5
Third
1836
#19
13.81.8
10.712.5
Auto4.5
Teleop9.0
End0.2
red by 4.6
5012
#28
9.20.1
6.76.9
Auto3.4
Teleop4.4
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
43%Melody oddsEarned35%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed33%Ensemble oddsMissed