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Red119
998818.2
248531.8
999924.3
Blue115
153833.8
999810.9
473836.6
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6395050150200119115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.81.0
30.031.0
Auto10.9
Teleop18.3
End2.6
blue by 4.9
36.60.6
36.136.6
Auto11.5
Teleop22.6
End2.6
Second
24.31.4
22.023.3
Auto7.9
Teleop11.6
End4.8
blue by 9.4
33.80.6
33.233.8
Auto9.9
Teleop21.7
End2.2
Third
9988
#27
18.21.4
15.817.2
Auto7.9
Teleop9.2
End1.2
red by 7.3
9998
#33
10.90.8
10.110.9
Auto2.2
Teleop8.9
End-0.2