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Red84
325629.2
681411.9
97231.5
Blue39
60599.1
425520.0
304526.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5961405070808439

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
972
#8
31.50.6
25.025.6
Auto9.4
Teleop19.6
End2.5
red by 5.2
3045
#15
26.30.8
24.123.4
Auto9.3
Teleop15.2
End1.7
Second
3256
#17
29.20.6
28.028.6
Auto11.2
Teleop15.7
End2.3
red by 9.1
4255
#30
20.00.8
16.115.4
Auto3.5
Teleop15.3
End1.2
Third
6814
#42
11.90.8
6.47.2
Auto3.8
Teleop7.1
End1.0
red by 2.8
6059
#54
9.10.7
9.18.4
Auto4.7
Teleop3.4
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
62%Melody oddsEarned50%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsEarned14%Ensemble oddsMissed