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Red135
432232.5
473836.2
441526.6
Blue81
85214.8
35947.5
325529.3
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1007820406012014016013581

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4738
#15
36.23.0
37.240.2
Auto12.6
Teleop21.1
End2.5
blue by 11.3
359
#1
47.50.5
35.135.6
Auto14.8
Teleop27.5
End5.2
Second
4322
#14
32.53.0
25.628.6
Auto8.0
Teleop21.5
End3.1
red by 3.3
3255
#23
29.30.5
26.827.4
Auto7.9
Teleop21.5
End-0.2
Third
4415
#16
26.63.0
25.428.4
Auto10.4
Teleop15.5
End0.7
red by 21.8
8521
#41
4.80.5
10.911.4
Auto0.9
Teleop2.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
42%Melody oddsEarned54%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
36%Ensemble oddsEarned39%Ensemble oddsMissed