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Red49
513723.7
29431.5
347629.7
Blue78
945228.5
364726.4
622017.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93730501504978

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
294
#11
31.52.3
30.227.9
Auto10.3
Teleop19.5
End1.7
red by 3.0
9452
#29
28.50.6
26.327.0
Auto10.6
Teleop17.7
End0.2
Second
3476
#19
29.72.3
28.426.1
Auto6.7
Teleop18.3
End4.7
red by 3.3
26.40.6
23.724.4
Auto5.2
Teleop19.4
End1.7
Third
5137
#34
23.72.3
23.120.8
Auto9.1
Teleop14.4
End0.3
red by 6.3
6220
#37
17.40.6
18.319.0
Auto3.0
Teleop12.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
58%Melody oddsMissed27%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
33%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed