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Red137
432232.5
441923.6
29431.5
Blue52
888813.1
330919.5
68722.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8567406010012014013752

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4322
#14
32.52.5
28.931.4
Auto8.0
Teleop21.5
End3.1
red by 10.1
687
#28
22.41.3
24.022.7
Auto9.6
Teleop12.3
End0.5
Second
294
#11
31.52.5
28.230.7
Auto10.3
Teleop19.5
End1.7
red by 12.0
3309
#35
19.51.3
24.022.7
Auto7.0
Teleop11.3
End1.2
Third
4419
#17
23.62.5
17.820.3
Auto6.9
Teleop15.3
End1.4
red by 10.5
8888
#36
13.11.3
14.713.4
Auto6.4
Teleop5.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned65%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsEarned23%Ensemble oddsMissed