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Red73
264315.3
213527.7
91258.2
Blue70
940012.3
594039.5
196714.3
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions536901001502007370

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.70.7
27.127.9
Auto12.0
Teleop13.4
End2.3
blue by 11.7
39.50.6
36.637.2
Auto10.0
Teleop24.8
End4.7
Second
2643
#11
15.30.7
14.915.7
Auto5.7
Teleop9.5
End0.0
red by 1.0
1967
#17
14.30.6
12.913.6
Auto4.1
Teleop8.8
End1.4
Third
9125
#31
8.20.7
7.98.6
Auto3.0
Teleop4.7
End0.4
blue by 4.2
9400
#37
12.30.6
10.911.5
Auto5.4
Teleop6.4
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
45%Melody oddsEarned66%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed28%Ensemble oddsMissed