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Red70
58134.8
392519.3
68043.8
Blue90
350127.7
432210.0
630515.3
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5937020801007090

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
581
#4
34.81.3
33.034.3
Auto12.6
Teleop17.3
End4.8
red by 7.1
3501
#12
27.70.9
18.119.0
Auto11.7
Teleop15.1
End1.0
Second
3925
#13
19.31.5
10.011.6
Auto7.8
Teleop9.4
End2.1
red by 4.0
6305
#29
15.31.5
11.212.7
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End1.6
Third
6804
#39
3.82.1
8.110.2
Auto3.5
Teleop-1.0
End1.3
blue by 6.2
4322
#24
10.01.1
6.98.1
Auto4.3
Teleop4.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
48%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
45%Ensemble oddsEarned13%Ensemble oddsMissed