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Red50
412313.1
59720.3
375910.9
Blue44
88987.8
519925.0
69043.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions355101001502005044

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
597
#17
20.31.2
15.116.3
Auto7.6
Teleop11.1
End1.6
blue by 4.7
25.00.1
22.822.7
Auto8.8
Teleop11.0
End5.2
Second
4123
#18
13.11.2
12.313.5
Auto4.9
Teleop5.8
End2.5
red by 5.3
8898
#26
7.80.2
13.813.5
Auto1.8
Teleop5.9
End0.1
Third
3759
#12
10.90.8
6.67.4
Auto4.0
Teleop5.0
End1.9
red by 7.2
6904
#44
3.80.2
7.57.3
Auto2.6
Teleop1.3
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
12%Melody oddsEarned33%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
18%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed