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Red49
67643.1
541924.6
945213.7
Blue28
28398.9
271013.4
265812.8
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions31330204060801004928

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5419
#12
24.62.3
15.417.7
Auto7.9
Teleop12.7
End3.9
red by 11.1
2710
#15
13.40.2
10.19.9
Auto4.1
Teleop7.2
End2.1
Second
9452
#41
13.72.3
8.610.9
Auto3.6
Teleop9.4
End0.7
red by 0.9
2658
#22
12.80.2
12.312.2
Auto4.6
Teleop6.7
End1.5
Third
6764
#50
3.12.3
4.16.5
Auto2.6
Teleop-0.0
End0.5
blue by 5.7
2839
#20
8.90.2
7.06.8
Auto2.7
Teleop4.1
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
11%Melody oddsMissed17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed33%Ensemble oddsMissed