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Red1
80063.9
88912.5
95385.4
Blue25
351212.7
441516.9
242912.2
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18650406080100125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9538
#29
5.42.3
5.83.5
Auto3.0
Teleop2.2
End0.2
blue by 11.4
4415
#17
16.93.1
19.216.1
Auto4.6
Teleop11.5
End0.8
Second
8006
#39
3.92.3
9.67.3
Auto2.1
Teleop1.7
End0.2
blue by 8.8
3512
#45
12.73.1
18.014.9
Auto6.8
Teleop4.3
End1.6
Third
8891
#37
2.52.3
6.54.2
Auto0.6
Teleop0.3
End1.6
blue by 9.7
2429
#18
12.23.1
15.912.8
Auto4.3
Teleop7.3
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsMissed37%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed