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Red86
69618.6
940832.9
Blue73
386313.0
696B13.4
114831.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4953102030406070808673

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9408
#12
32.92.7
30.032.7
Auto7.5
Teleop23.3
End2.2
red by 1.7
31.21.5
27.228.8
Auto8.7
Teleop20.2
End2.4
Second
696
#19
18.62.7
11.914.6
Auto3.6
Teleop14.8
End0.1
red by 5.2
696B
#17
13.42.6
9.412.0
Auto5.1
Teleop8.9
End-0.6
Third
6.54.5
3.27.8
Auto4.1
Teleop2.2
End0.1
blue by 6.6
3863
#29
13.01.5
11.212.7
Auto3.4
Teleop7.3
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
12%Melody oddsEarned9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed