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Red60
392510.6
374919.6
347625.1
Blue41
513614.8
38818.6
473827.6
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5757455055606041

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.10.6
24.525.2
Auto11.0
Teleop11.8
End2.3
blue by 2.5
27.61.6
27.525.9
Auto9.7
Teleop14.8
End3.1
Second
19.60.6
16.617.3
Auto7.3
Teleop11.5
End0.8
red by 4.8
5136
#13
14.81.5
14.913.4
Auto5.1
Teleop6.7
End3.1
Third
3925
#10
10.60.6
10.210.8
Auto4.8
Teleop5.2
End0.5
red by 1.9
3881
#32
8.61.5
9.07.5
Auto2.4
Teleop6.0
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
56%Melody oddsEarned39%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
25%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed