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Red70
62027.5
53928.7
554914.6
Blue65
632623.5
33912.8
159925.5
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7155204060801007065

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
539
#15
28.70.5
24.324.8
Auto10.8
Teleop15.5
End2.4
red by 3.1
1599
#33
25.50.9
19.420.3
Auto5.6
Teleop16.3
End3.6
Second
620
#5
27.50.5
21.522.0
Auto8.8
Teleop16.7
End2.0
red by 4.0
6326
#20
23.50.9
19.320.2
Auto7.9
Teleop12.0
End3.6
Third
5549
#42
14.60.5
16.416.9
Auto4.8
Teleop8.6
End1.2
red by 1.9
339
#49
12.80.9
12.913.8
Auto4.9
Teleop6.4
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
55%Melody oddsEarned50%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
36%Ensemble oddsMissed20%Ensemble oddsMissed