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Red70
859226.2
189518.6
88824.5
Blue85
34629.7
900317.1
393920.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions717155606575808590957085

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8592
#38
26.20.4
22.823.2
Auto8.3
Teleop15.7
End2.3
blue by 3.4
346
#11
29.70.9
34.034.8
Auto11.1
Teleop13.5
End5.1
Second
888
#17
24.50.4
20.621.0
Auto9.3
Teleop13.5
End1.7
red by 3.7
3939
#25
20.80.9
17.318.2
Auto9.0
Teleop9.7
End2.1
Third
1895
#48
18.60.4
20.220.6
Auto6.5
Teleop11.5
End0.7
red by 1.5
9003
#40
17.10.9
13.814.7
Auto5.1
Teleop8.6
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
63%Melody oddsEarned49%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsEarned