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Red40
401011.9
906814.8
186818.3
Blue36
549312.2
449932.0
958610.6
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions435502060801004036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
18.30.0
14.714.6
Auto5.5
Teleop12.2
End0.5
blue by 13.7
32.01.8
28.426.5
Auto9.1
Teleop17.1
End5.9
Second
9068
#18
14.80.1
14.013.9
Auto5.7
Teleop8.6
End0.5
red by 2.5
5493
#26
12.22.5
11.18.6
Auto5.2
Teleop6.8
End0.2
Third
4010
#25
11.90.0
11.911.8
Auto5.2
Teleop5.7
End1.1
red by 1.3
9586
#36
10.62.5
9.06.5
Auto3.3
Teleop6.8
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsMissed38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed