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Red85
494415.8
999921.4
958618.9
Blue10
364815.6
99903.3
83349.4
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48340204060801001208510

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9999
#13
21.43.6
14.217.9
Auto5.6
Teleop13.7
End2.2
red by 5.8
3648
#35
15.62.0
18.816.9
Auto5.1
Teleop9.2
End1.3
Second
18.92.2
13.315.5
Auto5.2
Teleop13.8
End-0.2
red by 9.4
8334
#38
9.42.0
11.59.5
Auto3.6
Teleop4.6
End1.2
Third
4944
#30
15.82.2
14.917.0
Auto4.6
Teleop10.1
End1.1
red by 12.6
9990
#31
3.33.3
4.41.1
Auto1.2
Teleop2.1
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
17%Melody oddsEarned8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed24%Ensemble oddsMissed