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Red60
320016.7
406824.2
364815.6
Blue33
208322.0
455018.4
141018.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions61702040801006033

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.20.4
22.922.5
Auto8.7
Teleop13.2
End2.2
red by 2.2
2083
#25
22.01.9
21.419.4
Auto10.4
Teleop9.8
End1.9
Second
3200
#16
16.70.4
16.616.2
Auto7.7
Teleop8.3
End0.6
blue by 1.8
1410
#28
18.51.9
20.018.0
Auto9.2
Teleop7.5
End1.8
Third
3648
#35
15.60.4
16.416.0
Auto5.1
Teleop9.2
End1.3
blue by 2.8
18.41.9
20.818.8
Auto7.5
Teleop9.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
64%Melody oddsMissed76%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed31%Ensemble oddsMissed