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Red78
999311.4
449932.4
299625.8
Blue68
316614.9
320016.7
203618.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73490204060801001201407868

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.40.7
31.332.0
Auto13.9
Teleop15.0
End3.5
red by 13.6
2036
#23
18.80.9
16.817.7
Auto6.5
Teleop11.5
End0.7
Second
2996
#11
25.80.7
25.225.9
Auto7.5
Teleop16.5
End1.8
red by 9.1
3200
#16
16.70.9
16.217.1
Auto7.7
Teleop8.3
End0.6
Third
9993
#24
11.41.0
10.411.4
Auto3.8
Teleop6.9
End0.8
blue by 3.5
3166
#39
14.90.9
13.013.9
Auto5.5
Teleop7.4
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
34%Melody oddsEarned30%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed