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Red111
17736.6
23021.5
808526.8
Blue89
314622.1
169942.6
216820.1
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9999809011012011189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
177
#7
36.61.5
34.836.3
Auto12.1
Teleop22.0
End2.4
blue by 6.1
42.60.2
39.839.5
Auto14.4
Teleop25.1
End3.1
Second
8085
#15
26.81.5
28.830.3
Auto7.5
Teleop14.4
End5.0
red by 4.8
3146
#23
22.10.2
27.527.3
Auto9.8
Teleop9.5
End2.8
Third
230
#17
21.51.5
24.626.1
Auto8.2
Teleop9.0
End4.3
red by 1.4
2168
#22
20.10.2
23.223.0
Auto5.7
Teleop13.3
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
93%Melody oddsEarned91%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
77%Ensemble oddsEarned38%Ensemble oddsMissed