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Red38
23620.7
769413.5
36344.7
Blue39
49876.8
740725.9
574610.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3637303540453839

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
236
#7
20.70.6
14.715.3
Auto7.8
Teleop7.5
End5.4
blue by 5.2
7407
#13
25.90.6
20.521.0
Auto9.7
Teleop11.8
End4.4
Second
7694
#22
13.50.6
13.814.3
Auto5.0
Teleop6.3
End2.2
red by 3.6
5746
#25
10.00.6
5.96.5
Auto2.6
Teleop4.9
End2.5
Third
3634
#33
4.70.6
4.55.1
Auto3.9
Teleop0.9
End-0.2
blue by 2.1
4987
#18
6.80.6
7.37.9
Auto0.5
Teleop4.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsMissed15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsEarned15%Ensemble oddsEarned