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Red22
234514.4
642429.3
20012.6
Blue107
328423.4
512620.0
44556.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6255010015022107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.32.2
31.629.4
Auto9.6
Teleop16.6
End3.1
red by 5.9
23.40.8
21.322.2
Auto7.5
Teleop15.0
End0.9
Second
2345
#30
14.42.2
15.813.6
Auto7.3
Teleop6.8
End0.3
blue by 5.6
20.00.8
21.222.0
Auto8.4
Teleop11.1
End0.5
Third
2001
#42
2.62.2
7.75.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop2.0
End0.7
blue by 3.8
4455
#19
6.40.8
8.39.1
Auto3.3
Teleop1.2
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
70%Melody oddsMissed19%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
28%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsEarned