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Red29
318122.7
94166.6
69883.8
Blue151
220043.2
248145.8
252141.8
0%Model gave it100%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2016105010020025029151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3181
#44
22.70.4
21.220.9
Auto7.3
Teleop11.9
End3.5
blue by 23.1
2481
#21
45.81.1
48.049.1
Auto12.3
Teleop30.5
End3.0
Second
9416
#74
6.60.4
9.89.4
Auto3.2
Teleop3.0
End0.4
blue by 36.6
43.21.1
38.539.6
Auto12.3
Teleop23.5
End7.4
Third
6988
#72
3.80.5
3.73.2
Auto2.3
Teleop2.0
End-0.6
blue by 38.0
41.81.1
42.843.9
Auto13.9
Teleop24.8
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsMissed99%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed84%Ensemble oddsEarned