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Red136
975237.9
62435.3
667241.3
Blue127
248145.8
253943.5
36525.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127126100110120130140150160136127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.30.4
40.941.2
Auto11.2
Teleop27.7
End2.4
blue by 4.5
2481
#21
45.80.2
46.046.2
Auto12.3
Teleop30.5
End3.0
Second
37.90.4
37.537.8
Auto11.5
Teleop24.4
End2.1
blue by 5.6
43.50.2
43.643.8
Auto12.4
Teleop24.6
End6.5
Third
624
#17
35.30.4
34.935.2
Auto10.3
Teleop22.1
End2.9
red by 9.5
365
#47
25.80.2
25.525.8
Auto7.0
Teleop15.5
End3.3