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Red114
423732.2
44942.0
198627.5
Blue124
546045.5
901524.8
58141.8
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions981126080120140160114124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
449
#21
42.01.6
39.741.2
Auto16.0
Teleop22.2
End3.8
blue by 3.5
45.51.3
40.641.9
Auto14.0
Teleop26.7
End4.8
Second
4237
#23
32.21.6
25.026.6
Auto12.2
Teleop17.0
End3.0
blue by 9.6
581
#11
41.81.3
40.541.7
Auto14.6
Teleop21.7
End5.4
Third
1986
#36
27.51.6
25.727.2
Auto7.1
Teleop18.2
End2.2
red by 2.8
9015
#38
24.81.3
18.820.1
Auto10.0
Teleop12.9
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
91%Melody oddsEarned96%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
26%Ensemble oddsEarned80%Ensemble oddsEarned