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Red40
96989.2
2113.6
411810.6
Blue60
255615.8
38619.8
527613.9
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions324201020506070804060

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21
#8
13.61.0
12.713.8
Auto3.7
Teleop8.4
End1.6
blue by 6.2
386
#5
19.81.6
13.615.1
Auto7.5
Teleop10.5
End1.8
Second
4118
#39
10.61.0
11.512.5
Auto3.4
Teleop5.2
End2.0
blue by 5.2
2556
#11
15.81.6
13.114.7
Auto5.9
Teleop8.1
End1.8
Third
9698
#33
9.21.0
6.47.4
Auto4.9
Teleop2.2
End2.1
blue by 4.7
5276
#23
13.91.6
10.311.8
Auto5.4
Teleop6.6
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
12%Melody oddsMissed15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed