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Red40
418824.6
141419.1
381512.4
Blue13
670513.4
95825.9
634021.7
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions563602060804013

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.60.5
20.119.6
Auto9.6
Teleop13.9
End1.1
red by 2.9
21.71.5
15.514.0
Auto8.1
Teleop13.0
End0.5
Second
19.10.9
14.914.1
Auto7.0
Teleop11.7
End0.4
red by 5.7
6705
#17
13.41.5
12.711.2
Auto2.0
Teleop10.6
End0.9
Third
3815
#13
12.40.5
13.012.5
Auto5.9
Teleop6.1
End0.4
red by 6.5
9582
#30
5.91.5
6.95.4
Auto0.8
Teleop4.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
24%Melody oddsMissed11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
19%Ensemble oddsMissed4%Ensemble oddsMissed