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Red59
88657.9
691929.7
753815.2
Blue42
926017.7
381512.1
873615.3
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions585102040801001201401605942

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.70.5
27.327.8
Auto9.6
Teleop19.4
End0.7
red by 12.0
9260
#41
17.70.4
20.620.3
Auto7.1
Teleop9.3
End1.3
Second
7538
#42
15.20.5
16.517.0
Auto6.3
Teleop7.6
End1.4
blue by 0.1
8736
#43
15.30.4
14.313.9
Auto5.9
Teleop8.9
End0.5
Third
8865
#39
7.90.5
7.68.1
Auto3.7
Teleop3.5
End0.6
blue by 4.2
3815
#46
12.10.4
12.412.0
Auto4.8
Teleop6.6
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsEarned13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed