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Red48
10025.6
418817.8
529312.7
Blue48
88157.8
947712.8
948012.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions403402060804848

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
17.80.2
17.517.7
Auto5.9
Teleop11.1
End0.8
red by 5.0
9477
#17
12.80.4
12.412.8
Auto4.9
Teleop7.0
End0.9
Second
5293
#13
12.70.2
12.412.6
Auto6.1
Teleop6.2
End0.5
red by 0.5
9480
#15
12.20.4
11.912.2
Auto5.1
Teleop6.2
End0.8
Third
1002
#28
5.60.2
5.35.4
Auto3.2
Teleop2.1
End0.3
blue by 2.2
8815
#14
7.80.4
7.47.8
Auto3.5
Teleop3.2
End1.1