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Red91
412226.6
128526.3
67032.5
Blue62
614735.7
26376.9
34334.6
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87867080901001101209162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
670
#38
32.50.2
31.431.6
Auto7.7
Teleop24.6
End0.2
blue by 3.2
6147
#22
35.71.1
31.830.7
Auto11.2
Teleop16.1
End8.5
Second
4122
#45
26.60.2
22.022.2
Auto8.7
Teleop17.3
End0.6
blue by 8.1
343
#35
34.61.1
37.336.2
Auto11.0
Teleop18.1
End5.6
Third
1285
#24
26.30.2
24.624.8
Auto8.5
Teleop14.3
End3.5
red by 19.3
2637
#70
6.91.1
9.38.2
Auto1.4
Teleop4.8
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
87%Melody oddsEarned38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsEarned47%Ensemble oddsEarned