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Red96
167642.3
541430.8
248621.1
Blue121
614735.7
548431.4
608135.4
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9911205015020025030035096121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.30.3
40.941.2
Auto11.4
Teleop24.0
End7.0
red by 6.6
6147
#22
35.70.3
32.432.7
Auto11.2
Teleop16.1
End8.5
Second
5414
#44
30.80.3
29.730.0
Auto8.9
Teleop21.3
End0.6
blue by 4.5
6081
#18
35.40.3
38.238.5
Auto13.3
Teleop18.1
End4.0
Third
2486
#46
21.10.3
20.921.2
Auto6.6
Teleop13.6
End0.9
blue by 10.3
5484
#50
31.40.3
29.529.8
Auto10.3
Teleop21.2
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
93%Melody oddsEarned89%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
44%Ensemble oddsMissed40%Ensemble oddsEarned