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Red119
368343.9
46134.6
346748.0
Blue138
360436.7
180742.2
357238.1
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143127050100200119138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.00.2
48.248.0
Auto12.0
Teleop32.7
End3.3
red by 5.8
42.20.4
42.342.7
Auto11.1
Teleop28.2
End2.9
Second
43.90.2
44.143.9
Auto13.6
Teleop26.7
End3.6
red by 5.8
3572
#15
38.10.4
38.138.5
Auto14.3
Teleop20.8
End3.0
Third
461
#29
34.60.2
34.834.6
Auto11.4
Teleop21.1
End2.1
blue by 2.1
3604
#12
36.70.4
36.737.1
Auto12.0
Teleop22.1
End2.5