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Red121
478625.9
312831.8
317536.6
Blue89
423039.3
207920.0
589541.2
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9210340608012014012189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3175
#13
36.62.1
33.235.3
Auto11.4
Teleop22.7
End2.5
blue by 4.7
5895
#12
41.20.2
38.638.4
Auto14.4
Teleop23.8
End3.0
Second
3128
#23
31.82.1
31.333.4
Auto8.7
Teleop21.2
End2.0
blue by 7.4
39.30.2
37.036.8
Auto11.1
Teleop24.7
End3.4
Third
4786
#25
25.92.1
20.222.3
Auto6.3
Teleop17.3
End2.3
red by 5.9
2079
#62
20.00.2
15.915.8
Auto7.3
Teleop12.1
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
84%Melody oddsEarned91%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed