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Red107
300634.7
20807.6
632853.4
Blue115
3343.9
818822.6
957621.7
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9795050150200107115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.41.0
50.251.1
Auto17.1
Teleop29.7
End6.6
red by 9.5
33
#1
43.90.4
39.439.0
Auto10.3
Teleop29.6
End4.0
Second
3006
#18
34.71.0
31.532.5
Auto10.5
Teleop21.4
End2.8
red by 12.0
8188
#33
22.60.4
24.624.2
Auto5.7
Teleop15.4
End1.6
Third
2080
#75
7.61.0
6.06.9
Auto4.4
Teleop2.1
End1.0
blue by 14.1
9576
#35
21.70.4
22.121.7
Auto7.4
Teleop12.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
76%Melody oddsEarned91%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
69%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed