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Red60
784822.0
252619.3
87372.8
Blue14
95797.5
95439.0
906111.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions442801020405060706014

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7848
#30
22.01.7
18.720.4
Auto8.8
Teleop12.0
End1.1
red by 10.2
9061
#40
11.71.5
9.17.6
Auto6.5
Teleop3.2
End2.0
Second
2526
#10
19.32.0
9.711.7
Auto4.6
Teleop11.7
End3.0
red by 10.3
9543
#51
9.01.3
9.07.7
Auto4.6
Teleop4.3
End0.1
Third
8737
#47
2.82.5
9.311.8
Auto0.4
Teleop1.6
End0.8
blue by 4.7
9579
#42
7.50.5
7.27.7
Auto4.0
Teleop3.3
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed