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Red64
372310.1
472828.3
642016.3
Blue87
485916.6
621721.4
414334.4
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50700204060801001201406487

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.31.8
23.825.6
Auto11.0
Teleop13.9
End3.4
blue by 6.1
34.41.3
29.831.0
Auto12.7
Teleop18.3
End3.3
Second
6420
#43
16.31.1
15.116.2
Auto5.4
Teleop9.0
End1.8
blue by 5.1
6217
#16
21.41.3
16.217.5
Auto7.0
Teleop12.3
End2.1
Third
3723
#45
10.11.8
8.910.7
Auto2.7
Teleop6.3
End1.1
blue by 6.5
16.62.1
14.817.0
Auto5.7
Teleop9.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
40%Melody oddsEarned76%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed17%Ensemble oddsEarned