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Red48
72379.3
198626.7
640210.7
Blue37
478712.2
642123.3
96697.9
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions574020801004837

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1986
#19
26.70.4
29.128.6
Auto9.1
Teleop15.1
End2.5
red by 3.3
6421
#34
23.30.5
21.421.0
Auto10.6
Teleop11.2
End1.5
Second
6402
#39
10.70.7
11.510.8
Auto5.5
Teleop3.2
End2.0
blue by 1.5
4787
#15
12.20.5
9.28.6
Auto7.1
Teleop3.0
End2.2
Third
7237
#33
9.30.7
9.08.3
Auto4.0
Teleop3.0
End2.3
red by 1.4
9669
#36
7.90.8
7.66.8
Auto3.4
Teleop3.2
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
33%Melody oddsMissed17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
13%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed