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Red51
173628.2
958517.7
802910.3
Blue82
409620.7
584730.2
379217.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63722040801001205182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.20.5
27.426.9
Auto11.9
Teleop15.6
End0.7
blue by 2.0
30.21.2
28.930.1
Auto9.1
Teleop18.3
End2.8
Second
9585
#35
17.70.8
18.417.7
Auto7.1
Teleop8.3
End2.3
blue by 3.0
4096
#14
20.71.2
18.019.3
Auto6.4
Teleop11.5
End2.8
Third
8029
#44
10.30.5
12.412.0
Auto5.2
Teleop5.1
End0.0
blue by 7.1
3792
#21
17.31.2
17.018.2
Auto3.8
Teleop11.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
62%Melody oddsEarned92%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed18%Ensemble oddsEarned