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Red89
745427.6
4528.3
540221.6
Blue112
174729.3
82931.1
349429.3
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions681002040608012014016089112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45
#6
28.31.6
24.926.5
Auto9.9
Teleop14.7
End3.7
blue by 2.7
829
#13
31.11.7
32.934.6
Auto9.8
Teleop17.9
End3.4
Second
7454
#20
27.61.6
22.624.2
Auto8.4
Teleop15.7
End3.4
blue by 1.7
1747
#26
29.31.7
26.227.9
Auto9.3
Teleop16.6
End3.4
Third
5402
#34
21.61.6
17.419.0
Auto5.3
Teleop14.2
End2.1
blue by 7.7
29.31.7
27.529.2
Auto5.6
Teleop17.7
End6.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
64%Melody oddsEarned88%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsEarned72%Ensemble oddsEarned