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Red84
843017.3
501032.8
745737.4
Blue93
317622.2
13524.8
745427.6
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9468204060801001201408493

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7457
#12
37.40.2
36.336.1
Auto14.5
Teleop16.9
End6.0
red by 9.8
7454
#20
27.61.8
24.226.0
Auto8.4
Teleop15.7
End3.4
Second
5010
#19
32.80.2
29.329.1
Auto9.1
Teleop22.1
End1.6
red by 8.0
135
#18
24.81.8
20.422.1
Auto8.1
Teleop15.0
End1.7
Third
8430
#23
17.30.2
16.115.9
Auto5.3
Teleop9.6
End2.4
blue by 4.9
3176
#27
22.21.8
19.621.4
Auto9.4
Teleop10.7
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
76%Melody oddsEarned76%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
66%Ensemble oddsEarned16%Ensemble oddsMissed