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Red45
458011.9
155513.7
649815.6
Blue31
101813.1
314715.4
4479.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions40430102030506070804531

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6498
#24
15.60.7
13.514.2
Auto6.0
Teleop8.5
End1.2
red by 0.2
3147
#15
15.40.5
15.915.4
Auto5.9
Teleop8.1
End1.4
Second
1555
#12
13.70.5
12.412.9
Auto5.4
Teleop8.2
End0.1
red by 0.6
1018
#16
13.10.7
12.611.9
Auto4.3
Teleop6.7
End2.1
Third
11.90.7
11.111.8
Auto4.1
Teleop7.0
End0.8
red by 2.1
447
#29
9.80.7
10.39.6
Auto1.0
Teleop5.7
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
29%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed