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Red106
463538.5
248144.9
246832.2
Blue88
427028.4
11833.3
4524.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143955020010688

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.91.3
43.742.4
Auto12.5
Teleop27.8
End4.5
red by 11.6
118
#24
33.30.6
35.434.8
Auto10.9
Teleop16.8
End5.6
Second
4635
#19
38.51.3
42.941.6
Auto12.5
Teleop22.6
End3.3
red by 10.1
4270
#38
28.40.6
32.131.5
Auto8.6
Teleop15.0
End4.8
Third
2468
#42
32.21.3
37.436.1
Auto8.9
Teleop20.7
End2.6
red by 7.5
45
#45
24.70.6
24.123.6
Auto9.4
Teleop12.6
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
99%Melody oddsEarned86%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
71%Ensemble oddsEarned89%Ensemble oddsMissed