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Red114
413022.4
91034.9
3343.2
Blue88
174728.4
11833.3
102422.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108992040608012014016011488

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33
#28
43.21.2
40.842.0
Auto12.5
Teleop26.9
End3.8
red by 9.9
118
#24
33.30.5
36.235.7
Auto10.9
Teleop16.8
End5.6
Second
910
#11
34.91.2
30.331.5
Auto9.0
Teleop21.9
End4.0
red by 6.5
1747
#32
28.40.5
30.229.6
Auto7.4
Teleop17.8
End3.2
Third
4130
#40
22.41.2
25.426.5
Auto10.1
Teleop11.2
End1.1
red by 0.3
1024
#52
22.20.5
24.223.7
Auto10.8
Teleop8.4
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
92%Melody oddsEarned95%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
61%Ensemble oddsEarned65%Ensemble oddsEarned